Apple’s memory crisis is a big red flag for tech

The memory crisis is getting worse for Apple, which is struggling to get enough memory chips together for its upcoming iPhone 18 Pro series smartphones. That’s according to tech journalist Tim Culpan. As he details it, Apple and its assembly partners are still attempting to secure sufficient quantities of memory, and though they’re confident they can meet initial demand once the devices are introduced, they apparently remain concerned that wait times could rapidly extend as retail inventory evaporates. Apple’s manufacturing process compounds the problem. The A20 processor is packaged with memory using a new TSMC process, meaning processors are reportedly piling up while manufacturers wait for memory chips. You should read Culpan’s report to get the full picture. What’s the frequency? You don’t need to read between the lines to see the challenge. Despite demand for TSMC’s new processors, Apple seems to have been able to secure the supply it needs. But when it comes to churning out the final packaged chips memory, supply constraints have created significant obstacles to producing in quantity. This is bad for Apple, particularly as the challenge doesn’t appear to be confined to iPhones; customers are experiencing delays getting new Macs. “Many new orders are now not arriving until September,” Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman wrote earlier this week.  It isn’t just Apple that will be impacted by the AI-driven memory drought. The scale of Apple’s orders is among the greatest in the industry, and if its product plans are feeling the pain, every other manufacturer will be feeling it as well. Conscious uncoupling This is certainly in tune with expectations voiced at the beginning of the year when Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner, warned: “This is the steepest contraction in device shipments witnessed in over a decade. Higher prices will narrow the range of devices available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally altering upgrade cycles.” Gartner in February predicted a 10.4% decline in global PC shipments and an 8.4% drop in smartphone shipments as a result. The analyst also predicted a 130% surge in combined memory and SSD storage prices by the end of this year, with steep product price increases to follow. Recent data from IDC, Gartner, Counterpoint, and Omdia confirm PC market declines, but only at around 4% (the estimates vary). Today’s report from Culpan suggests we’ve not yet experienced the full extent of this decline — hinting that while the initial fall reflected price, the next impact will be defined by lack of supply. While this hurts big brands like Apple, smaller entities could be left high and dry.  When the chips are down It is interesting to reprise Atwal’s warning in February that, “the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028,” as this seems to be what’s happening. That’s something long-time Mac users like me find particularly ironic, given it was only this year Apple briefly offered up its superbly priced $499 MacBook Neo. The industry direction we’re seeing now suggests we’ll never see that again, though the success of that device gave Apple a phenomenal 28.7% increase in sales in its just-revealed June quarter. Despite memory supply challenges, Apple seems to be faring fairly well, with market share increasing across its business. Counterpoint data reveals that Apple has achieved an astonishing 65% share of the premium smartphone market. In part, that’s because as an existing premium brand, Apple was able to better absorb rising memory costs through higher margins and reduced promotions. Realistically, this means we can expect an overall increase in iPhone prices when the new range is announced up to $300 more, Jeff Pu, of GF Securities, recently claimed.  Building the moat Once again, what’s sustainable but difficult for larger brands such as Apple is existential disaster for smaller players — and it’s only now a matter of time before we see some real blood. That’s particularly true in smart home and device markets, where manufacturers lack the margins to sustain higher memory prices while delivering products customers can afford. A recent Global Electronics Association report tells us 62% of electronics manufacturers are already experiencing constrained availability or extended lead times. It also tells us 82% expect rising prices, including 33% who cite a “significant increase.” This is already being felt by consumer and business users, as networking equipment is experiencing significant shipping delays. So, while we may find ourselves waiting a month or more for an iPhone, the wait for new routers, external storage devices, and home automation systems could be even longer once available inventories disappear.  This doesn’t appear to be a short-term challenge; a recent Digitimes report warns that vendors have already sold their entire allocation of memory capacity for 2027. Don’t even get me started on the likely impact on the military and defense markets as high-performance memory, storage, and processor supplies become constrained. Just like declining river levels in Europe, lack of memory threatens severe disruption. With so much turbulence impacting the tech economy, all we need now is for one or more of theinvestor-supported AI companies that have helped create the memory shortages to default on loan payments. Got to keep the customer satisfied Eager to protect sales, Apple recently introduced the Apple Upgrade leasing service in the US. This should enable consumers to purchase new devices at prices more sustainable to them over time. Apple isn’t alone in taking such action, which will inevitably extend beyond America. “OEMs are expanding financing, trade-in and buyback programs to improve affordability,” said Counterpoint’s Harshit Rastogi. “Samsung has also expanded its Galaxy Forever program to several markets to make flagship devices more accessible.”  Such schemes are all well and good, of course. Consumers will embrace them in hopes of a better tomorrow. But the tech industry is not immune to the wider constellation of existential challenges impacting economic environments. In the end, if Apple, the industry’s biggest buyer of advanced components, is struggling to secure memory, the rest of the electronics sector is likely to face even greater challenges. For consumers, the initial impacts will be longer waits and higher prices. But the longer term consequences could be slower innovation and increased consolidation across the industry. You can follow me on social media! Join me on BlueSky,  LinkedIn, Mastodon and subscribe to The Core.