Earnings macro week ahead: The Fed and Big Tech report on the same day

The Fed decision is Wednesday, October 28, but markets have mostly given up on a move: fed funds futures put the odds of a hold at roughly 90-92%. The market believes that a hike less than a week before the midterms would be politically awkward. So now the question isn’t really about a rate hike in the week ahead but December and that is now at 85% for a hike.I will be watching macro data including Thursday's PCE report but I will also be looking for macro signals from companies reporting this week. Last week, we heard from airlines that continued to highlight strong travel demand and corporate spending in a good economic sign, but what abotut the rest of the economy? Housing is particularly interesting with interest rates high and a deep, ongoing recession in that sector.Monday, Oct 26After market:Nucor is the best steel commentary in the business. Watch what management says about nonresidential construction and order books as long rates push higher. Steel priced have been moving up but that's more about tariffs than macro. Public Storage is an underrated housing tell: people move into storage when they move house, and nobody is moving with 7% mortgages. Welltower and Sun Communities show rate-sensitive real estate with 30-year mortgages above 7%.Tuesday, Oct 27 — FOMC day oneBefore market:UPS is the trade and freight read: parcel volumes, tariff effects and the small-business shipper. Coca-Cola gives global volumes and pricing, plus FX drag from the strong dollar. Sherwin-Williams is a major housing tell, since repaint demand tracks existing home sales. Hilton reports RevPAR, the cleanest gauge of business travel demand. Royal Caribbean shows discretionary spending with fuel costs biting, though note that Carnival jumped on earnings early in October. After market:Visa is the macro report of the day. Payment volumes are a real-time spending series, and cross-border shows travel demand. Keep in mind that nominal growth flatters volumes when CPI is at 3.7%. Wednesday, Oct 28 — Fed decision at 2 pm ETBefore market:ADP is the most underrated macro report on the calendar. Its client pays-per-control numbers are effectively a payroll survey. Any slowing in hiring at small and mid-sized businesses would land hours before Warsh speaks. GE Vernova is the power-equipment trade: gas turbine backlog, pricing and data center demand. That's a big macro driver right now and we will see how bullish they are on the order book.   Phillips 66 reports refining margins as the Iran war makes for extreme profitability. After market: The Fed statement and press conference will barely be digested before Microsoft and Alphabet report. Their capex now shows up in GDP, so watch whether AI spending guidance is still rising at ramping borrowing costs. Alphabet’s search ads are a broad read on the ad economy. Chipotle is the middle-income consumer; and something of an inflation battleground.Thursday, Oct 29 — September PCEBefore market:Caterpillar is the industrial report of the week. It covers construction, mining, power generation for data centers and dealer inventories in one place. It's been a standout AI winner but a volatile name. Mastercard confirms or contradicts Visa.After market:Amazon is two macro reads in one: retail volumes show the consumer and AWS capex shows AI spending. Starbucks shows discretionary traffic and China. Mondelez covers cocoa costs and pricing tolerance. Coinbase and Strategy are risk-appetite gauges. Intel and Sandisk cover the PC and storage cycle and those ones will surely be big market movers. Friday, Oct 30Before market:CN is the one I’d watch from a Canadian perspective. Rail volumes are a direct read on Canadian trade flows, tariff damage and the resource economy. Chevron and BP show how the majors are allocating capex with the Middle East premium in oil. I'll look for signs on drilling discipline. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.