investingLive Americas FX news wrap 10 Nov: It’s a Wrap. Hot US CPI puts a bigger Fed hike in play

US stock market close: Hot CPI leads to a selloffFed's Bowman: Persistent inflation, firming labor conditions suggest 'work to do'Nvidia falls another 6% and is now testing a key support zoneFed's Schmid: Some concerning trends in prices, underneath the whole energy storyBank of Canada minutes: Governing Council sees possible need to hike rates furtherU.S. Treasury sells $42 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 5.02%ECB’s Lane says the bar for directional rate guidance is highEuropean stocks mostly higher as hot US CPI sends Treasury yields above 5%Iran's Rezaei: No negotiations currently taking place between Tehran and WashingtonBitcoin tests its 200 day moving average after hotter US CPI dataFed's Logan: It's clear that Fed needs at least two more quarter-point rate hikesUS 2-year yields surge as the market realizes the US has an inflation problemUS October core CPI +0.3% vs +0.2% expectedMorning Kickstart. Oil slides as Waller puts a half-point hike in play. Markets brace for CPIinvestingLive European news wrap: Fed's Waller floats case for 50 bps hike in DecemberOctober CPI was the story. Headline inflation slowed from September, but both headline and core prices rose more than expected. The core reading mattered most. Before the release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller had flagged a 0.3% reading as the point where a larger December hike could come into play. That’s what the report showed at published precision, and traders raised the odds of a half-point move. images.investinglive.com.  The current numbers put a 50 bp hike in December at 10% while a 25 bp hike is the other 90%.  The 2-year yield led the move higher, the dollar gained against every major currency in the late-session snapshot, and gold and silver fell. Anthropic’s IPO terms gave tech stocks an early lift, but the Nasdaq Composite ended the session snapshot down 0.74%. investinglive.comThe dollar rises across the boardThe dollar gained the most against the Australian dollar, with AUDUSD down 0.91% to 0.6863, followed by a 0.75% decline in GBPUSD to 1.3339. EURUSD fell 0.55% to 1.1161, while USDJPY rose 0.55% to 158.77 (see technical post here). The dollar’s smallest gain was against the Canadian dollar, with USDCAD up 0.51% to 1.4189.Treasury yields jump, led by the 2-year2-year yield 4.7335%, +18.65 basis points5-year yield 4.8121%, +15.31 basis points10-year yield 4.9875%, +12.55 basis points30-year yield 5.3502%, +9.42 basis pointsThe 10-year traded above 5% during the session and was back just below it in the late snapshot. The bigger move in the 2-year tells the story. Traders were repricing what the Fed might do over the next few meetings. A soft $42 billion 10-year auction added to the pressure. It stopped at 5.02%, 1 basis point above the when-issued yield, and the 2.46x bid-to-cover ratio fell short of the 2.60x average. Strong direct demand only partly offset weaker indirect demand and a larger dealer takedown. investinglive.comUS stocks give back the Anthropic bounceLate-session levels from the supplied snapshotDow industrial average 52,237.23, −0.30%S&P 500 7,520.93, −0.38%Nasdaq Composite 20,065.87, −0.74%Russell 2000 2,821.38, −0.68%Nasdaq 100 27,740.80, −0.60%Anthropic’s IPO gives tech a lift that fadesAnthropic kicked off its IPO roadshow with updated terms after retracting preliminary figures sent to bankers. The Claude maker and selling shareholders are offering 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each, for a deal worth up to $64.4 billion and an implied valuation of up to $1.4 trillion. The shares are expected to start trading on Nasdaq on November 19 under the ticker ANT. investinglive.comReports that orders covered the available shares helped push the Nasdaq indices into positive territory earlier in the session. The bounce faded. Demand for the offering is one barometer of investors’ appetite for AI, while today’s jump in yields raised the hurdle for growth-stock valuations across the market. investinglive.comEuropean stocks mostly higher, led by SpainSpain’s IBEX 35 +0.98%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.69%France’s CAC 40 +0.55%Germany’s DAX +0.31%UK’s FTSE 100 −0.29%. investinglive.comUS CPI. Headline slows, but core stays stickyHeadline CPI rose 0.4% in October versus 0.3% expected and 0.6% in September. Core CPI rose 0.3% versus 0.2% expected, the third straight month at 0.3% on a rounded basis. The BLS had no October 2025 comparison because of last year’s government shutdown, so the October report came without year-over-year readings. September’s annual rates were 3.7% for headline and 2.6% for core. Energy rose 0.7% after September’s 5.2% jump, helping explain the slowdown in headline CPI. Shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the headline increase. Food rose 0.5%. Under the surface, motor vehicle insurance rose 0.7% and airfares climbed 0.4%, while used-car prices fell 1.2%. InvestingLive put core services excluding shelter, often called supercore, at roughly 0.4% for the month.The distinction for the Fed is that the energy impulse cooled sharply while core inflation held its pace. The unrounded core reading was 0.297%, close enough to Waller’s 0.3% marker to get the market’s attention. October PCE and November payrolls are still due before the December meeting. PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and payrolls will help show how much room the Fed has to tighten. images.investinglive.comThe Fed speakers, one by oneA number of Fed speakers did talk today and they were more hawkish himChristopher Waller. Speaking before CPI, Waller said he would support a 25-basis-point December hike even if October inflation improved. He opened the door to a 50-basis-point move if core CPI came in at 0.3% or higher. He sees the labor market as broadly balanced and is concerned about how widely price increases have spread, including whether higher energy costs are feeding into other goods and services. Michelle Bowman. Speaking after the release, Bowman said the CPI report suggested inflation pressures could persist longer and that labor-market conditions appeared to be firming. She pointed to October PCE and November payrolls as two inputs still to come before the December decision. She also wants to assess how durable AI-related demand is and how geopolitical risks feed through to the economy.Jeff Schmid. The Kansas City Fed president called current policy fairly accommodative. Housing stood out as an area where rates may be biting, but he saw little evidence of restraint elsewhere. He also flagged concerning price trends beneath the energy headlines. His argument was that the current rate setting is doing too little to slow inflation. images.investinglive.comLorie Logan. The Dallas Fed president said she sees a need for at least two more quarter-point hikes and that the Fed may be able to move faster this winter. After those two moves, she would see a case for pausing to assess the economy. She also said higher bond yields signal that monetary policy still has work to do. The overall message. All four put inflation front and center, but they emphasized different parts of the decision. Waller put the size of the December move in play. Logan laid out a path of at least two more increases. Schmid questioned whether current policy is restrictive enough, and Bowman emphasized the data still to come. The jump in the 2-year yield was the clearest sign that traders took the prospect of faster tightening seriously. Oil slips. Metals and crypto fall harder.WTI was down 0.56% at $86.36 after trading as low as $83.88, while Brent slipped 0.67% to $91.95. Hopes for progress in US–Iran talks remained in the background. Today’s softer crude prices offered some relief on energy costs, but the bond market took its cue from the CPI surprise and the Fed’s response. investinglive.comGold fell 2.59% to around $4,032 and silver dropped 3.54% to $51.52. A stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields were headwinds for both. Bitcoin fell 1.42% to around $73,881, moving in the same direction as growth stocks, while Ethereum lost 3.18% to $2,059.42.The 2-year yield is the barometer going forward. October CPI brought a larger December hike into the conversation. The next test is whether October PCE confirms the persistence in core prices and whether November payrolls give the Fed room to move faster. investing.com This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.