ISM non manufacturing PMI for August 55.4 versus 54.2 estimate. Stronger than expectations

Nonmanufacturing PMI prior month 54.1Nonmanufacturing PMI for August 55.4 versus 54.2 estimatenonmanufacturing business activity 61.7 versus 59.1 last monthEmployment index 47.8 versus 47.4 last monthNew orders index 60.9 versus 57 42 last monthPrices paid 72.6 versus 70.3 last monthThe US ISM nonmanufacturing PMI rose to 55.4 in August from 54.1 last month, comfortably above the 54.2 estimate. The details show stronger activity, with business activity rising to 61.7 from 59.1 and new orders increasing to 60.9. However, prices paid also moved higher to 72.6 from 70.3, signaling more widespread cost pressures. Employment improved modestly to 47.8 from 47.4 but remained below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. Putting it another way, service businesses are seeing stronger demand and higher costs, but that strength is not translating into an increase in staffing. For the Fed, the combination of solid growth and persistent inflation gives policymakers a reason to remain cautious, while the employment component remains a softer spot in an otherwise stronger report.US yields have moved a little bit higher with the two-year now down -520 basis points at 4.327%. The 10 year is down for basis points at 4.754%What does the ISM Non-manufacturing data show?The ISM Services PMI—previously called the ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite—is a monthly health check on the US services economy. It covers businesses such as retailers, banks, hotels and healthcare providers. The different names generally refer to the same headline indicator.The key level is 50:Above 50: The sector is generally expanding.Below 50: The sector is generally contracting.A decline from 55 to 52: Still expanding, but at a slower pace. It does not mean activity fell 3%.The composite combines four equally weighted components: business activity, new orders, employment and supplier deliveries. Traders also watch prices paid for inflation clues. Source: ISMThese are measures of the breadth of change—not percentage growth rates. For example, prices paid at 60 does not mean inflation is 60%. Source: ISM methodologyFor market price action, the question is: What does the report change about expectations for the economy and the Fed? The following are typical interpretations, rather than guaranteed reactions:Stronger activity and hotter prices: Can push Treasury yields and the USD higher as traders price in fewer rate cuts or a greater chance of tightening. Stocks may struggle if higher interest rates outweigh the benefit of stronger growth.Softer activity and cooling prices: Can push yields and the USD lower. Stocks may welcome the prospect of easier policy, provided the slowdown does not look severe.Strong activity and cooling prices: Can be favorable for stocks because growth is holding up while inflation pressure eases.Weak activity and rising prices: Creates a difficult combination. Growth is weakening, but inflation may limit the Fed’s ability to provide support.The surprise versus expectations often matters more than whether the number is above or below 50. For example, a reading of 53 may sound positive because it signals expansion. But if traders expected 56, the disappointment could send yields and the dollar lower. A reading of 53 versus expectations of 51 could produce the opposite reaction.Putting it another way, the headline gets the market’s attention, but the details help determine whether the move continues. A strong headline accompanied by weaker hiring and softer prices can produce an initial USD rally that subsequently fades.For a technical trader, the report provides the catalyst. The price action around key levels helps show whether buyers or sellers can maintain control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.