Non-farm payrolls preview: October numbers show a skew

What's expected:Consensus estimate +65K (range +50K to +125K)September +29KAugust +133KJuly -10KPrivate consensus estimate +64KUnemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.2% vs 4.2% priorParticipation rate 61.8% priorPrior underemployment U6 prior 7.6%Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +2.9% y/y vs +3.0% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.1% priorAvg weekly hours exp 34.4 vs 34.4 priorOctober jobs so far:ADP employment report +86K vs +67K expected and +86K priorISM services employment 51.4 vs 50.1 priorISM manufacturing employment 52.4 vs 52.0 exp and 52.7 priorChallenger Job Cuts 43,994 vs 43,281 priorPhilly employment +9.1 vs +11.8 priorEmpire employment +10.3 vs +10.6 priorInitial jobless claims survey week 194K vs 196K last monthRevelio Labs +26K vs +68K priorThere is a positive skew in the numbers releaed so far, including ADP and both ISM reports. Yesterday's report from Revelio Labs got some attention as a weak point.The market pricing for a December rate hike is down to 73% in light of the equity market volatility and the big question remains: What will Trump do in the Iran war. That and the outlook for AI with Anthropic's IPO upcoming are the key variables right now. S&P 500 futures are slightly higher but they were higher yesterday before the wheels fell off. The US dollar is doing better on safe haven flows and a strong jobs report would add to the dollar bid and also get the market worrying about a scenario where the Fed has to hike even as the AI trade legs lower. BMO notes that "41% of previous unemployment prints for October have been lower-than-expected, 22% have been higher-than-estimates, and 37% have matched the consensus," while there is a modest negative skew versus expectations on the headline number. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.