The US consumer may be hitting a wall. A look at eight indicators

The old addage is: Never underestimate the spending power of the US consumer.That stance has been a remarkably good one for traders. Time after time, Americans have dug into their pockets and kept the economy churning.But never say never.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly was just out with a comment, highlighting that she's "just starting to hear the consumer may be running out of gas."Now that might not be a big red flag. In the Oct 14 Beige Book, the SF Fed reported: "Retail sales softened slightly. Contacts continued to describeeconomic conditions as bifurcated or K-shaped, with one contact observing that mounting financial pressures on lower-income families have spread to impact middle-income households."Now the K-shape is nothing new and in that same Beige Book, over half of the districts said spending was driven by high-income households. Still, with the election swinging on affordability, gasoline prices staying high and inflation biting, now would be a time to see cracks.In the week ahead, we will get earnings from Walmart, Target, Home Depot and others, so that will be the best check. We also get official Octobe retail sales, with economists seeing the closely-watched 'control group' up 0.4% m/m. This could be the week where Wall Street realizes that while it's been breathlessly watching AI and the Anthropic IPO, the foundations of the US economy have been eroding.For those who don't want to wait a few more days, lets look at the early signs:Sept retail sales control group was +0.1% vs +0.3% expectedSept personal income report showed the savings rate at 3.8%, the lowest since Oct 2022Bank of America cardholder data showed spending per household up 5.8% y/y (nominally), down from 6.2%; lower-income households lead at 5.9%; trading down is at its highest since 2021Redbook same-store sales up 10.4% y/y in the Oct 31 weekIn the McDonald's Q3 report US comps fell 0.2%, the first decline since early 2025; fast-food traffic fell 2.6% industry-wide; the CFO wasn't forecasting a better Q4. Management did report encouraging underlying traffic trends in OctoberNY Fed expectations for Oct saw the expected chance of missing a debt payment hit 13.8%, the highest since December 2025; 45.3% see higher unemployment in a year, the most since April 2020Citi luxury card data: luxury card purchases were down 6% y/y in September, following 4% declines in both July and August.CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor on Nov 11: October retail spending gained 0.2% m/m and 3.6% y/y, with core up 0.3% on the month. That monthly gain was the weakest since November 2025, and CNBC’s own headline called it signs of strainI don't see any real signs of a cliff here but I will be watching this week's numbers at least as closely as Anthropic's IPO. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.