What are the main events for today?
EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we get the final PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK, as well as the Eurozone PPI report. None of the data will change anything for the respective central banks, so the market reaction will likely be muted. As a reminder, the ECB is widely expected to hike at the upcoming meeting but also signal less appetite for further tightening. The market, on the other hand, is still pricing high chances of another rate hike in December. On the BoE's front, the central bank is expected to deliver one rate hike before the end of the year, with 68% chances of a move in November. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we have Fed's Waller speaking on the economic outlook, the US Jobless Claims data and the US ISM Services PMI. The "economic outlook" speeches generally contain policy signals or guidance. Fed's Waller has been a great "leading indicator" for Fed policy. He was the first adopting a dovish bias in 2025 which eventually led to three rate cuts. In May of this year, he turned neutral and started to focus on inflation.The last time he spoke, he was more hawkish and said that his focus turned to monthly inflation gains. He's looking for reasons not to hike, but will vote for an increase as soon as the data disappoints. That's why next week's US CPI will be key. The US Jobless Claims are unlikely to be market-moving unless there's a big upside surprise that scares the market. Initial claims are expected at 205K vs 203K prior, while continuing claims are seen at 1783K vs 1778K prior. The labour market data has been mostly stable and not a source of concern for the Fed.The US ISM Services PMI is expected at 54.1 vs 54.1 prior. The S&P Global US Services PMI showed a strong increase, with firms reporting the fastest output growth for over four years. The data is unlikely to change much for the Fed, though, as the focus remains solely on inflation. CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - Fed's Waller (hawkish - voter)15:00 GMT/13:00 ET - BoE's Pill (hawk - voter)19:00 GMT/17:00 ET - Fed's Hammack (hawk - voter)19:55 GMT/17:55 ET - Fed's Goolsbee (hawkish - non voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
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