What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.Non-Farm Payrolls-25K to 121K range of estimates30K-70K range most clustered56K consensusUnemployment Rate4.2% (40%) 4.1% (55%) - consensus4.0% (5%)Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y3.2% (9%)3.1% (22%) 3.0% (50%) - consensus2.9% (19%)Average Hourly Earnings M/M0.4% (9%) 0.3% (56%) - consensus0.2% (33%)0.1% (2%)Although the NFP report is generally one of the most market-moving economic releases, the US CPI next week will be more important because the Fed is focused on inflation. Fed Governor Waller yesterday mentioned that a hot CPI will make him consider a rate hike at the September meeting. Policymakers have been repeating that the labour market is stable and not a source of inflation.We will likely need significant upside or downside deviations to see some decent market reaction. In the first case, I would expect the market to fade yesterday's moves and go back to pre-Waller levels. In the second case, we should see the market extending Waller-driven moves on further dovish repricing.  This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.